BC copper 2509 closed lower amid volatility, with SHFE copper price spread remaining inverted [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2509 opened at 69,900 yuan/mt and closed with a negative daily candle. During the night session, BC copper initially fluctuated downward, touching a low of 69,870 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward. During the day session, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher, reaching an intraday high of 70,300 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 70,180 yuan/mt, down 0.16%. Open interest stood at 3,997 lots, a decrease of 92 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume reached 2,534 lots. The US PPI monthly rate for July recorded a 0.9% increase, the largest since 2022, suggesting that inflation may rise generally in the future. After the data release, US Fed officials refuted expectations of a significant interest rate cut in September. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, LME copper inventories decreased by 50 mt to 155,800 mt, indicating a tight supply. On the demand side, affected by the off-season factor and high copper prices, downstream procurement sentiment was suppressed. It is worth noting that Trump met with Russian President Putin at 3 a.m.

The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2509 closed at 79,060 yuan/mt. If based on the most-traded BC copper contract 2509 price of 70,180 yuan/mt, its after-tax price would be 79,303 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper contract 2509 and the BC copper contract was -243, maintaining an inversion and increasing compared to the previous day.